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  • feedwordpress 01:57:26 on 2014/06/10 Permalink
    Tags: Wildfires   

    The Dangers of Traffic Gridlock during wildfire evacuations in San Diego 

    Cocos Fire from OlivenhainThe most remarkable aspect of the 2007 Wildfire evacuations of San Diego was how orderly everything was. Drivers seemed to be more polite with each other than normal.  Talk to someone who has been through a wildfire evacuation and they will likely have some stories to tell about community cooperation, a sense of pulling together. For example, in the May, 2014 fires, the Helen Woodward Animal shelter put out a request for horse trailers to move their horses to safety, and were immediately met with a flood of volunteers with horse trailers. The San Diego Union Tribune (June 7: Cocos Fire Jam to be evaluated) quoted a San Elijo resident about his experiences trying to evacuate during the recent Cocos fire.

    Longtime resident Dustin Smith said he packed up his pets and headed off about 4:15 p.m., but couldn’t leave his gated Promontory Ridge community. In front of him was a line of vehicles backed up even before the gate…. He said he gave up, tried again an hour later but found the same situation. Tried again shortly after 6 p.m. and finally found roads clear enough to leave.

    Being blocked from leaving your home for 2 hours under any circumstances is a really bad thing, but it is particularly terrifying when there is a wildfire raging nearby, and you don’t know where it will go. My daughter was evacuated earlier in the day from her office at the corner of El Camino Real and Palomar Airport road.  Traffic on the road was so bad that it took her 30 minutes just to get out of her parking lot.  She call 911 to see if they could get some traffic control police to help, but the dispatcher just said, “sorry, all of our officers are busy with other aspects of the fire.” Google Maps traffic reporting was very helpful, and gave citizens a great way to see what was happen and adapt to the traffic flow dynamically.  For example, my wife and I were babysitting our grandchildren May 14th, and I was driving to our normal rendezvous with my son-in-law for a 4:00 handoff in San Marcos.  I was planning on driving over San Elijo road to Twin Oaks, when I got a call from him, saying he saw a fire starting near Twin Oaks (that would become the Cocos fire).   We both knew that this could block the road, and could cause havoc with the traffic flow between us.  So, we both turned around and went home, watching the fire expand, but also noticing that the traffic on Del Dios highway was clear on Google Maps.  My daughter came by around 8 that night, and we had an uneventful handoff. Unfortunately, the past few decades have seen an upsurge in NIMBY activists who fight roads in their area, creating a patchwork of unconnected roads with long cul-de-sacs. Perhaps the risk of traffic gridlock might reverse some of these attitudes, or at least give fire safety folks a stronger position from which to demand better ingress and egress for fire safety.

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  • feedwordpress 01:03:31 on 2014/05/24 Permalink
    Tags: Wildfires   

    Why you shouldn’t try to defend your house against a wildfire with a garden hose. 

    I live in an area where wildfires are part of nature. I am also an “early evacuator” – happy to get out of the way of any potential fire hazards if one is coming my way. I know that there are others who want to stay back and defend their homes, typically with a garden hose.

    Here’s a photo sequence of the recent fires that proves my point. It shows an ember gaining a foothold on a hillside, which engulfs the whole hillside and creates a 100′ tall fire tornado within 15 minutes.

    Jeff Anderson, Elfin Forest Recreational Reserve park ranger, took these remarkable images during the recent “Cocos Fire” in North San Diego County.  The fire started quickly in the late afternoon of May 14. The next morning (May 15), it seemed to be fairly tame until about noon.  Then it flared up with a vengeance.  My home was about 1000 feet downwind of the evacuation zone, and we could smell the smoke passing over us, so we were intensely focused on what was happening.

    Jeff was on the ridge of the Elfin Forest reserve looking north towards Harmony Grove when he snapped this photo of an ember burning at 12:25:24pm on May 15:

    Fire 5-14_254

    Just two minutes later, at 12:27:30pm, the fire from the original ember fire spread considerably, and another ember jumped up the hill:

    Fire 5-14_256

    Four and a Half minutes later, at 12:32:07, the fire engulfed the whole side of the hill. At this point, the flames were probably burning 1200 – 1600 degrees F.

    Fire 5-14_262

    Eight minutes, later, at 12:40:05, the fire had generated a “fire tornado” about 100 feet high, with winds 50-80 mph. The temperature at the base of the tornado was probably about 2000 degrees F, about one fifth the temperature of the surface of the sun, and the fire was generating its own wind:

    Fire 5-14_275

    I would ask those who would try to defend their house by playing Rambo with a garden hose, how long they think they would last in the midst of that inferno. It’s not a matter of your skill or machismo, it’s simply a recognition of the overwhelming power of nature.

    We also need to recognize that wildfires are a natural part of the ecosystem. We even have a flower, the Fire Poppy, that germinates after wildfires. Here is picture I took of a fire poppy at Lake Poway, six months after the area had been burned in the 2007 Witch Creek Fire:

    Fire Poppy

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